金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，低基数下，餐饮社零增速2024年10月以来有所回升，由之前3%左右增速提至4%左右，而供给端餐饮门店数量仍呈减少趋势。上市公司数据来看，价格压力有所缓和、客流表现筑底，24Q4同店降幅预计总体企稳，而海底捞高基数下呈现下滑、但上下半年比较来看相对平稳。细分赛道龙头企业率先调价，该行认为一定程度上反映竞争总体走向平稳，低价策略对刺激客流的边际影响减弱，价格战进一步加剧可能性较低。根据该行此前测算，重点餐饮企业目前业绩总体处于中性假设水平，考虑政策带动，乐观情景下业绩调升空间不等，达6%~60%。当前餐饮企业对应2025年动态市盈率均值在20倍，无论是政策博弈还是行业自身景气修复带来的预期拐点下估值弹性均有望显现，而估值表现的持续性主要取决于数据兑现程度。
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