智通财经APP获悉，建银国际发布研究报告称，予华润啤酒(00291)“跑赢大市”评级，分别下调集团2024及25财年的盈测2%和4%，以反映集团上季的表现疲弱及今年利润率扩张较为缓慢的预测，目标价由35.9港元下调至30.9港元。
该行预期，华润啤酒上季表现疲弱，将2024年下半年的销售额增长预测从持平降至下跌1%，同时将啤酒及白酒业务收入增长预测分别从持平和增长8.1%，降至跌1.1%和增长2.4%。由于政府补助减少，抵销了利润率扩张和税率下降的正面影响，预计集团2024年下半年盈利将下降50%至2.53亿元人民币。
建银国际表示，假设内地消费需求没有好转，预期润啤2025财年的收入将同比增长1%，主要是来自啤酒和白酒业务的销量增长。去年12月大麦进口价格同比下跌10%，相信将带动啤酒业务的毛利率扩张约0.5个百分点至41.5%;基于温和的销售增长及稳定的原料价格，预测白酒业务的毛利率将持平至63.8%;预期集团整体的毛利率将扩张0.6个百分点至42.9%。
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