Investors in Sunnova Energy International (NYSE:NOVA) have unfortunately lost 85% over the last three years

Simply Wall St.
22 Jan

Every investor on earth makes bad calls sometimes. But really bad investments should be rare. So take a moment to sympathize with the long term shareholders of Sunnova Energy International Inc. (NYSE:NOVA), who have seen the share price tank a massive 85% over a three year period. That might cause some serious doubts about the merits of the initial decision to buy the stock, to put it mildly. And more recent buyers are having a tough time too, with a drop of 72% in the last year. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 39% in the last three months. We really feel for shareholders in this scenario. It's a good reminder of the importance of diversification, and it's worth keeping in mind there's more to life than money, anyway.

With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.

View our latest analysis for Sunnova Energy International

Sunnova Energy International isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually desire strong revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.

In the last three years, Sunnova Energy International saw its revenue grow by 40% per year, compound. That's well above most other pre-profit companies. So why has the share priced crashed 23% per year, in the same time? The share price makes us wonder if there is an issue with profitability. Ultimately, revenue growth doesn't amount to much if the business can't scale well. If the company is low on cash, it may have to raise capital soon.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

NYSE:NOVA Earnings and Revenue Growth January 22nd 2025

It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. If you are thinking of buying or selling Sunnova Energy International stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

A Different Perspective

Sunnova Energy International shareholders are down 72% for the year, but the market itself is up 26%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 12% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Sunnova Energy International better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 4 warning signs for Sunnova Energy International you should be aware of, and 3 of them shouldn't be ignored.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of undervalued small cap companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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