金吾财讯 | 民生证券发研报指，1月21日晚间，新东方(09901)发布FY2025Q2(2024年9-11月)财务业绩，Q2营收10.39亿美元/yoy+19.4%，经营利润1926万美元/yoy-9.8%，归母净利润3193万美元/yoy+6.2%。该行表示，根据公司财报推算东方甄选Q1/Q2的Non-GAAP经营亏损分别约为1180/100万美元，Q2不再有与辉同行剥离带来的影响，表观利润有所改善。展望下半年，由于上年同期知名主播董宇辉、与辉同行仍在表内、基数较高(FY2024H2收入约41亿人民币/yoy+95%，GMV约86亿元/yoy+65%)，预计FY2025H2表观同比增速存在压力。环比来看，根据蝉妈妈数据，2024年8月以来东方甄选在抖音平台的GMV逐月上涨，2024年12月增至7.8亿元，日均GMV修复至2616万元，接近2023年平均水平。该行续指，公司是国内教培行业龙头，主力K12业务表现稳健，行业贝塔仍在。目前公司出国业务因国际环境和国内消费疲软承压，但龙头的品牌/渠道/教研优势不改，该行看好大环境修复后公司业务的再度回暖。基于公司Q2业绩和Q3指引，该行下调公司FY2025-FY2027总收入至48.73/56.75/64.52亿美元，3年CAGR约14%；Non-GAAP归母净利润4.75/5.68/6.60亿美元，3年CAGR约20%；经调整EPS0.29/0.35/0.40美元，对应当前股价PE为16/13/11x。维持推荐评级。
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