美银证券发布研究报告称，维持阿里巴巴-SW(09988)“买入”评级，将2025至2027财年经调整净利润预测上调4%至7%，目标价由109港元升至114港元。

该行预期，阿里巴巴将于2月中旬至下旬发布2025财年第三季季绩，估计其收入同比增长9%至2,835亿元人民币，较市场预期高2%，当中核心淘天集团收入同比估计升7%。另预期中国市场的客户管理收入(CMR)同比增长7%至988亿元人民币，主要受惠于在双十一促销活动、家电补贴计划，以及持续的用户参与和体验升级下，阿里的商品交易总额(GMV)增长加速;由于淘宝的抽成率提高及人工智能工具Quanzhantui，令集团变现率有所提升。

该行认为，淘天集团的增长速度跑赢行业，其经调整EBITA预测同比增长1%至607亿元人民币;阿里国际数字商业集团(AIDC)及云业务收入预测同比增长26%及9%。该行预期阿里整体经调整EBITA为544亿元人民币，同比增长3%，主要归因于非核心亏损减少;经调整净利润预测为474亿元人民币，略高于市场预期。展望2026财年，随着核心电商业务的战略投资开始见效，估计淘天集团及集团的经调整EBITA将恢复增长。

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