金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，24Q4以旧换新政策激励叠加年末冲量，车市消费持续升温——24年报废更新补贴累计申请达到了292万辆，其中Q4申请量179万份，环比+76%；零售销量也环比增长27%至736万辆，或带动乘用车板块Q4迎来收入、利润快速增长。25年以旧换新补贴延续，报废更新补贴范围进一步扩大，有望引领需求向上。受益于国内政策激励，整车板块24Q4业绩有望环比增长。Q4比亚迪/零跑/奇瑞/吉利销量表现较强，分别环比+34%/44%/31%/29%。长城Q4销量环比+29%，出口盈利持续释放。政策拉动下Q4吉利/奇瑞/华为等下游核心客户产销爬坡，有望带来产业链业绩同比亮眼增长。24Q4老旧货车更新补贴政策开始发力，重卡板块年末出现翘尾行情，尤其新能源重卡销量增速更为亮眼。Q4摩托内销进入淡季，但欧标切换逐步落地，海外提货需求释放，带动Q4大排出口单季新高。
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