金吾财讯 | 中邮证券发研指，据途虎(09690)24中报，截至24H1工场店总量达6311家、较23年末+402家；考虑到H2加快新开店节奏，预计H2净新开店500-600家、至24年末工场店数量约6900家。从24年加盟政策看，公司将低线城市作为扩店重点，叠加消费趋于理性化趋势，具备性价比优势的自有自控产品占收比有望快速提升、进而有望驱动盈利水平提升。汽后维保作为低频但高价格敏感度类消费，通过线上与线下结合、流量变现较传统模式具备显著优势，叠加公司在SKU、新能源车等方面的投入，有望进一步提升客户粘性、增加市场份额。据F6汽车科技，从全市场来看，独立售后凭借高性价比及便捷优势持续挤占4S店市场份额，以机油为例，24年独立售后市场份额近70%、较上年提升约5pct。
考虑到公司工场店持续扩张、SKU进一步丰富，同时因降价策略影响单店收入，预计24H2收入同比增长约8%；24H1毛利率25.9%、同比+1.7pct，考虑到公司降价促销在H2力度加大，预计24H2毛利率24.4%、24全年毛利率25.1%；考虑到销售及营销开支增加、同时运营等开支下降，预计24H2经调整净利率环比小幅下滑。综上，该行预计2024/25/26年公司营收为147.89/163.46/179.17亿元，考虑到股权激励等因素影响，预计公司归母净利润为4.49/7.09/10.46亿元，对应当前市值PE分别为26/17/11倍。维持买入评级。
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