OUTLOOK
We expect FY25 traffic to reach almost 200m (+9%) guests, subject to no further adverse news on Boeing delivery delays. Unit costs are performing in line with expectations, as the cost gap between Ryanair and EU competitor airlines widens, and should be broadly flat for the full-year. Our fuel hedge savings, strong interest income and some modest aircraft delay compensation are largely offsetting ex-fuel cost inflation (particularly crew pay & productivity increases, higher handling & ATC fees and the cost inefficiency of repeated B737 delivery delays). While Q3 fares were marginally stronger than the prior year (which was impacted by the OTA boycott in late Nov. 2023), this year's Q4 will not benefit from last year's early Easter, which makes our Q4 PY comp. very challenging. At this stage, we are cautiously guiding FY25 PAT in a range of €1.55bn to €1.61bn. The final FY25 PAT outcome remains subject to avoiding adverse external developments between now and the end of Mar., incl. the risk of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, further Boeing delivery delays and ATC mismanagement/short-staffing here in Europe."
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