金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，2024年四季度银行板块基金持仓比例明显提升，主要因为板块绝对收益逻辑延续，尤其是2024年12月重要会议结束后，市场对于政策博弈告一段落，部分资金切换到稳健配置风格，叠加2024年年底2025年年初逐步进入增量险资资金的配置季节，银行板块绝对收益和相对收益均录得较好表现，2024年12月16日-12月31日，中信银行股指数上涨4.9%，同期Wind全A下跌4.0%，板块高景气表现下，银行股占主动型基金重仓股比例较上季度末明显提升接近1pct。展望后续，基于对银行商业模型风险预期和增长预期的再定位，该行认为银行股净资产安全性和ROE稳定性的优势将持续吸引配置需求，板块估值仍有明确上行空间。个股组合方面，推荐两条主线：1）红利贡献稳健回报，选择业绩增速稳定、分红率稳定、资产质量稳定、估值波动低的个股；2）商业模型优异公司，估值溢价有望回归常态区间：选择ROE高且确定性强，当前估值溢价仍处低位的个股。
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