Two Harbors Investment Corp (TWO) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Losses and Gains ...

GuruFocus.com
31 Jan
  • Book Value: $14.47 per share at December 31, down from $14.93 on September 30.
  • Economic Return: 7.0% for the year.
  • Comprehensive Loss: $1.6 million or $0.03 per weighted average common share in Q4.
  • Net Interest Expense: $35 million in Q4, a decrease of $7.4 million from the previous quarter.
  • Net Servicing Income: $168 million minus $5 million of non-operating MSR related servicing costs.
  • Investment Securities Gains/Losses: Swung from a gain of $270 million in Q3 to a loss of $267 million in Q4.
  • Net Swap and Other Derivative Gains: $145 million in Q4 compared to losses of $205 million in Q3.
  • Servicing Asset Gain: $82.5 million in Q4, after a loss of $133.4 million in Q3.
  • MSR Valuation Change: Positive $139.4 million in Q4, compared to a negative $93.8 million in Q3.
  • Economic Debt to Equity: Decreased slightly to 6.5 times.
  • Portfolio Size: $14.8 billion at December 31, including $10.4 billion in settled positions and $4.4 billion in TBAS.
  • MSR Portfolio: $202 billion UPD at December 31, with a price multiple increase to 5.9 times from 5.6 times.
  • Static Return Estimate: 9.8% to 12.1% before leverage, 10.8% to 14.4% after leverage.
  • Warning! GuruFocus has detected 7 Warning Sign with PH.

Release Date: January 30, 2025

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

Positive Points

  • Two Harbors Investment Corp (NYSE:TWO) has developed a new platform from scratch with minimal costs, aiming to scale it in 2025.
  • The company is expanding its offerings by providing second lien loans, acting as a broker for $33 million in loans.
  • Two Harbors Investment Corp (NYSE:TWO) demonstrated a 7.0% economic return for the year 2024.
  • The company has shifted a portion of its MSR financing to VFN repurchase agreements, which carry lower floating rate spreads.
  • The MSR portfolio showed a gain of $82.5 million in the fourth quarter, with a positive change in valuation due to higher rates and lower projected prepayments.

Negative Points

  • Two Harbors Investment Corp (NYSE:TWO) experienced a comprehensive loss of $1.6 million in the fourth quarter.
  • The company's book value per share decreased from $14.93 to $14.47 by the end of the year.
  • Net interest expense was $35 million in the fourth quarter, reflecting a decrease due to lower RMBS borrowing balances.
  • Investment securities gains and changes in OCI swung from a gain of $270 million in the third quarter to a loss of $267 million in the fourth quarter.
  • The decline in realized prepayment rates and lower UPB due to the sale of MSR contributed to a decrease in Rolph from $62 million to $57 million.

Q & A Highlights

Q: Can you provide an update on how the book has performed so far this quarter? A: William Greenberg, President and CEO, responded that it has been a reasonably quiet quarter, with an estimated total return up between 1.5% and 2% as of the previous night.

Q: How does the lower leverage level impact your view on earnings power, and what would be the normalized range for earnings? A: Nicholas Letic, Vice President and CIO, explained that the debt to economic ratio is just one measure of return potential. The central tendency and range of returns remain supportive of the dividend, similar to prior quarters. The leverage affects components of debt to equity, but other risks like mortgage spread risk have increased to a more normal range.

Q: Does your earnings power outlook reflect the cost of volatility? A: William Greenberg clarified that the earnings power outlook is based on static spreads and does not reflect the cost of volatility.

Q: Could you expand on your outlook for agency MBS spreads this year and the allocation to MSRs versus MBS? A: William Greenberg noted that mortgage spreads have shown a more controlled response since November, with a more predictable Fed path. The net supply and demand for mortgages seem balanced, and the RV of mortgages looks favorable. The MSR allocation is expected to remain steady, with no material changes anticipated.

Q: What are the main differences between the EAD and the static return range provided on slide 14? A: William Greenberg explained that the return potential on slide 14 is based on a mark-to-market basis at quarter-end, reflecting the static yields to the forward curve. EAD is asynchronous, reflecting purchase prices of assets bought long ago, creating timing differences in portfolio management.

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

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