Sherwin-Williams (SHW) faces high mortgage rates, unfavorable weather and foreign exchange hurdles, crimping prospects for the US paint market, Morgan Stanley said Tuesday in a report.

The investment firm cut its earnings estimates on Sherwin-Williams to $12.75 a share from $13.50 in 2025 and to $14.40 from $15 in 2026 and reduced its price target on the stock to $405 from $450.

January weather will likely challenge to the company's Q1 outlook, while the "still high interest rates blunt the volume recovery previously expected" in H2, Morgan Stanley said.

"Our view on the market share gain opportunity and the company's leverage to an eventual housing recovery remains unchanged, but timing clearly pushed out," the report said.

Morgan Stanely kept its overweight rating on the stock.

Sherwin-Williams shares fell 1.1% in recent Tuesday trading.

Price: 360.12, Change: -4.05, Percent Change: -1.11