The Federal Reserve is expected to leave the fed funds target range unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% when it announces its rate decision at 1900 GMT. The U.S. economy remains resilient with solid labor market but inflation is above target. Any hints about the future policy path from Chair Jerome Powell are more likely to move markets than the rate decision itself as unchanged rates are fully priced in. The following is a selection of analysts' comments.

Dollar Is Firm Ahead of Fed Meeting

0923 ET - The dollar strengthens ahead of the Fed meeting, as the central bank is expected to keep a hawkish tone. Markets are pricing in a pause on rate cuts, which are expected to resume later this year. There are uncertainty about the impact of Trump policies on inflation and how the Fed will react. "More and more tariff noise is likely in the coming days and weeks," BBH analysts write. They say they are looking through the noise to focus on the U.S.'s "strong growth, elevated inflation," paired with a more hawkish Fed. The WSJ Dollar index rises 0.2% as the greenback strengthens 0.4% versus the euro and is slightly weaker versus the yen. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

Dollar Could Rise as Tariff Risks Unlikely to Alter Fed's Stance

1405 GMT - The U.S. dollar could rise as risks stemming from potential U.S. tariffs are unlikely to shift the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts at Wednesday's meeting. Ebury's Matthew Ryan says in a note. Fed Chair Jerome Powell might say greater protectionism risks inflation staying higher for longer and weaker U.S. growth, he says. However, Powell is more likely to put a heavy emphasis on the recent strength of economic activity and the labor market. "Ultimately, we think that Powell will make clear to markets that additional cuts are on the way, albeit that there is no rush for further rate reductions." The Fed's decision is due at 1900 GMT. The DXY dollar index rises 0.4% to 108.270. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

Oil Futures Lower Ahead of EIA Data, Fed Decision

0901 ET - Crude futures are lower after an industry report of a first increase in U.S. crude stocks in 10 weeks, and brief protests ended at two Libyan oil export ports. The API reported a 2.9 million barrel build in U.S. crude stocks, analysts note, along with a further increase in gasoline and a withdrawal in distillates. Analysts surveyed by the Wall Street Journal expect the EIA to report a 1.1 million barrel increase in crude inventories. "In addition to today's EIA, the Fed rate decision later today could prompt some oil price movement, and we still look for the impact to skew in favor of a strengthening in the U.S. dollar that could add to ongoing downside pressures across the energy complex," Ritterbusch says in a note. WTI is off 0.6% at $73.33 a barrel, and most active Brent is down 0.6% at $76.01 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

Gold Futures Rise Slightly as Market Awaits Federal Reserve Meeting

1353 GMT - Gold futures tick up ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting. Futures are up 0.1% at $2,770.50 a troy ounce. The market is awaiting the outcome of the meeting later Wednesday, ActivTrades' Ricardo Evangelista says. While the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, the market will be eager to gauge policymakers' stances, particularly on inflation risks and the timing of potential rate cuts, Evangelista says. That said, the threat of inflationary effects from potential tariffs under President Trump's new administration remains a key concern, Evangelista writes. Against this backdrop, a dovish-leaning Fed would likely support gold prices. Conversely, remarks highlighting inflation risks and a need to maintain elevated interest rates for longer could push Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher, weighing on non-interest bearing bullion, Evangelista adds. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

Treasury Yields Decline Ahead of Expected Fed Hold

0846 ET - Treasury yields weaken ahead of the first Fed meeting of the Trump administration. A hold is fully priced in, while investors crave for hints on how monetary policy could be affected by tariffs, a crackdown on immigration and other actions by Trump. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect weekly jobless claims to increase slightly tomorrow and PCE inflation to remain above target Friday. The 10-year is at 4.517% and the two-year at 4.190%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

Dollar Could Stay Lifted if U.S. Tech Stocks Steady, Fed Cautious

1309 GMT - The U.S. dollar could remain supported if U.S. tech stocks continue to stabilize after the recent selloff and the Federal Reserve stays cautious about cutting interest rates at Wednesday's meeting, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. Another sharp tech-led equity selloff would potentially boost the market's rate cut bets for the Fed, he says. However, this week's equity volatility probably hasn't raised enough concerns about the potential knock-on wealth effect to warrant a comment from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, he says. He is likely to remain cautious about future cuts as the Fed needs to see significant economic weakness and lower inflation. The Fed's decision is at 1900 GMT. The DXY dollar index rises 0.2% to 108.102. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

Federal Reserve Likely to Keep Rates Unchanged, Could Cut Once More This Year

1115 GMT - The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged at 1900 GMT, but could cut once more in the coming months, Rabobank's Philip Marey says in a note. "We expect [Fed chairman Jerome] Powell to stress that the FOMC is data-dependent and cautious about further cuts," Marey says. While markets price in two Fed rate cuts in 2025, Rabobank expects only one rate reduction due to possible inflationary effects of tariffs. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

Future Fed Rate Cuts Will Depend on Inflation Progress

0937 GMT - The Federal Reserve is entering a new phase in which interest-rate cuts will require more progress on inflation, say Natixis's Christopher Hodge and Jonathan Pingle in a note. With the U.S. labor market on firm footing, the Fed will now prioritize getting inflation back to target and will need to see a string of encouraging data before it resumes the cutting cycle, the analysts say. In line with market pricing, Natixis expects the Fed to keep the the target range unchanged. "The Fed successfully previewed that it is now in 'wait and see' mode and expect communication to emphasize the need for policy flexibility," they say. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falls about 3 basis points to 4.519%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

Fed Meeting Seen as Unlikely to Stir Market Expectations

0903 GMT - The Federal Reserve's January meeting seems very unlikely to shake up the market narrative, analysts at RBC Capital Markets say. Markets have been fully pricing a pause for much of the intermeeting period and Fed speakers have made no attempt to push back, the analysts say in a note. However, even as the Fed pauses, it will almost certainly maintain the cutting bias, they say. This is largely consistent with current market pricing, although RBC's modal call is for no additional cuts this year. In the absence of projections update, any potential market reaction likely hinges on Chair Jerome Powell's press conference, they say. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falls 3 basis points to 4.518%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

Gilt Yields, Eurozone Bond Yields Edge Lower Ahead of Fed, ECB Rate Decisions

0838 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds or gilts, decline, along with eurozone government bond yields ahead of major central banks' rate decisions this week. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates on hold at Wednesday's rate announcement while the European Central Bank is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. "[Investors] look forward to monetary policy updates from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank for further direction," Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a note. The 10-year gilt yield falls 3bps to last trade at 4.580%, Tradeweb data shows. The 10-year Bund yield declines 2bps to 2.542%. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

Fed Unlikely to Bend Under Pressure From Trump

0801 GMT - The Federal Reserve is not likely to bow to pressure to cut rates prematurely, despite the challenges posed by U.S. President Trump, says Oddo BHF's Bruno Cavalier in a note. One problem under the new president concerns the Fed's reaction to Trump's economic agenda, in particular the implementation of customs measures, the chief economist says. Another is about political interference in Fed policymaking, he adds. During his first term, Trump routinely criticized the Fed and its president in insulting terms, contrary to custom, Cavalier says. He did it again recently, while also demanding that rates be cut immediately. "Trump's criticism is not pleasant for the central bank but is unlikely to push the Fed to cut rates if business and price conditions do not justify it," Cavalier says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

Dollar Rises Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

0749 GMT - The dollar edges higher ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting later as the central bank is widely expected to pause interest-rate cuts. The Fed could defy strong labor market data and expectations for strong growth by sounding less cautious about the pace of future rate cuts, XTB's Kathleen Brooks says in a note. However, any dollar falls are likely to be limited, she says. The Fed usually has a large impact on the currency market but U.S. President Trump's tariff talk is the most important driver. The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 107.949. The Fed's decision is at 1900 GMT. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

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