As an investor its worth striving to ensure your overall portfolio beats the market average. But its virtually certain that sometimes you will buy stocks that fall short of the market average returns. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term FAT Brands Inc. (NASDAQ:FAT) shareholders, since the share price is down 63% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 38%. On top of that, the share price is down 33% in the last week.
If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for FAT Brands isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.
See our latest analysis for FAT Brands
FAT Brands wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.
In the last three years, FAT Brands saw its revenue grow by 43% per year, compound. That is faster than most pre-profit companies. In contrast, the share price is down 18% compound, over three years - disappointing by most standards. It seems likely that the market is worried about the continual losses. But a share price drop of that magnitude could well signal that the market is overly negative on the stock.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
Balance sheet strength is crucial. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, FAT Brands' TSR for the last 3 years was -12%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
FAT Brands shareholders are down 6.3% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 26%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 21% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 4 warning signs for FAT Brands you should be aware of, and 3 of them are significant.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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