ASML Stock Soars Nearly 8%. Orders Beat Estimates as AI Investments Drive Demand

Bloomberg
29 Jan

ASML Holding NV booked more than twice as many orders as analysts expected in the fourth quarter, as the artificial intelligence boom drove demand for its chipmaking machines.

Shares of ASML rose 7.85% in overnight trading. Other chip companies also rallied. Applied Materials, SOXL, rose over 4%; Marvell rose 3%; Super Micro, Arm Holdings, AMD rose over 2%.

The Dutch company reported order bookings of €7.09 billion ($7.4 billion) in the fourth quarter, it said in a statement on Wednesday. That compares with an average estimate of €3.53 billion by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

“AI is the clear driver,” Chief Executive Officer Christophe Fouquet said. “We really believe that AI is creating a shift in the market and we have seen customers benefiting from it very strongly.”

The results came after ASML’s market capitalization fell by more than €19 billion on Monday on concern that a new AI model by Chinese startup DeepSeek can provide comparable performance to Western chatbots at a fraction of the price. ASML makes machines needed to produce some high-end chips that the Chinese company is barred from purchasing.

Net bookings were driven by demand for ASML’s most-advanced extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, for which €3 billion of orders were placed in the period.

In a bid to stall China’s progress in AI, the US has banned the export of advanced semiconductor technologies to its geopolitical rival. ASML has never been able to sell its EUV machines to China because of US-led restrictions. Last year, the Dutch government also blocked immersion deep ultraviolet lithography systems to the country after pressure from the Biden administration.

DeepSeek’s progress suggests Chinese AI engineers have found a way to work around the bans, focusing on greater efficiency with limited resources. Its latest model raised questions about the effectiveness of the trade curbs.

Despite the growing number of restrictions, ASML benefited from strong demand from China last year as chipmakers there bought up older kit used to make more mature types of semiconductors.

China accounted for €1.92 billion of sales in the fourth quarter, 27% of ASML’s total. The company expects China sales to fall to about 20% of total revenue this year.

“2025 will be a year where we see China going back to a more normal ratio in our business,” the company said in a statement on Wednesday.

US pressure on ASML to further restrict sales of semiconductor technology to Beijing will likely grow under President Donald Trump, Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof said in an interview with Bloomberg at the World Economic Forum last week in Davos.

ASML could benefit from the billions of dollars companies have pledged to build up AI capacities. Meta Platforms Inc. announced plans on Friday to boost capital expenditures on AI projects this year by about half to as much as $65 billion. That came on the heels of OpenAI, SoftBank Group Corp. and Oracle Corp. announcing a $100 billion joint venture called Stargate to build out data centers and AI infrastructure projects around the US.

ASML’s top customer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., this month said it foresees spending $38 billion to $42 billion on technology and capacity in 2025, up to 19% more than analysts expected.

ASML shares on Monday slumped 7%, the most since a selloff in October, when it cut its 2025 revenue outlook. Its shares are down more than 30% from a July peak and it has ceded the title of Europe’s most valuable technology company to Germany’s SAP SE.

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