Release Date: January 28, 2025
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Q: Jay, you emphasized the de-risking nature of the charges in Q4. Can you discuss the potential for future charges within Aeronautics and the lifecycle of that program? Also, how do the multiyear targets look now? A: We have significantly reduced the risk on the classified program. We performed a comprehensive review and made a conservative cost reset. We've implemented continuous monitoring and added technical resources to mitigate risks. Regarding multiyear targets, our 2025 outlook is better than projected in October, with growth expectations increased to 4% to 5%, driven by improved throughput across the value chain.
Q: Jim, with the new administration pushing for more fixed-price contracts, are you concerned about increased risk and potential future charges? A: Not necessarily. We apply a disciplined bid process to both fixed-price and cost-plus contracts. Our strategy involves risk-adjusted return on investment, pricing risks upfront, and moving on if the price doesn't meet competition. The administration's efforts to reduce bureaucracy are seen as an opportunity, and we welcome systemic changes in the defense enterprise.
Q: Can you provide a long-term outlook for Missiles and Fire Control (MFC) in terms of growth and margins, especially considering the GD rocket motor deal? A: For 2025, we expect continued growth driven by programs like GMLRS, HIMARS, PAC-3, JASSM, and LRASM. Demand remains strong, and we anticipate multiyear contracts. Margins, excluding the classified program impact, are expected to be around 14%, aligning with our long-term expectations.
Q: Can you elaborate on the free cash flow bridge for 2025, considering factors like F-35 inventory unwind and pension contributions? A: Starting from an adjusted cash flow of $6.1 billion in 2024, we expect around $1 billion benefit from F-35 deliveries and progress on withholds. We also anticipate a tax benefit from lower R&D capitalization and some benefit from cash-based net income, leading to a midpoint of $6.7 billion in free cash flow for 2025.
Q: How do you view the interplay of US budget decisions with strong export demand for the F-35, especially if US quantities are reduced? A: We are confident in maintaining the 156 production rate due to strong demand from both the US and international partners. The F-35's capabilities, such as manned-unmanned teaming and advanced digital features, ensure its value in maintaining an effective deterrent. The need to recapitalize the aging fleet also supports continued demand.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.