金吾财讯 | 交银国际表示，2024年内地天然气表观消费同比增长8%至4,260亿方，年内，内地天然气产量同比上升6.2%至2,464亿方，2024年进口气量同比上升9.9%，其中LNG/管道气进口量同比上升7.7%/13.1%。该行估计2025年内地进口气量能至少保障1440亿方的供应(同比增长约9%)，内地天然气产量能保持6%的同比增长。综上，该行估计2025年内地能大机会保障4,600亿方的天然气供应量，同比上升7.2%。展望2025年内地燃气消费量，该行估计2025年内地城燃及工业用气量同比增长约5%/9%，整体天然气消费量将同比上升约7%至4,560亿方。覆盖的燃气公司中，该行仍偏好：1)分红增长较明确的昆仑能源(00135/买入/目标价9.08港元)，以及2)预计利润在2025年重新恢复增长的新奥能源(02688/买入/目标价65.10港元)。
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