Last week, you might have seen that International Paper Company (NYSE:IP) released its yearly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.2% to US$55.63 in the past week. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at US$1.57, some 20% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at US$19b. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for International Paper

Following the latest results, International Paper's seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$19.7b in 2025. This would be a reasonable 5.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 177% to US$2.93. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$19.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.04 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$56.36, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic International Paper analyst has a price target of US$66.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$45.90. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. For example, we noticed that International Paper's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 5.6% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 0.3% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 4.3% annually. Not only are International Paper's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$56.36, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for International Paper going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 4 warning signs for International Paper (2 can't be ignored!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.