Constellation Brands Stock Tanks as Tariff Fears Mount

GuruFocus.com
04 Feb

Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) just can't catch a break. The stock slid another 2.8% this morning as tariff worries rattled investors. President Trump's 25% tariff on Mexican imports has put pressure on the company, which relies heavily on brands like Modelo and Coronaespecially after Modelo dethroned Bud Light as America's top-selling beer. Piper Sandler wasted no time downgrading the stock from Overweight to Neutral, slashing its price target to $200. Meanwhile, RBC Capital Markets is holding the line, reiterating its Outperform rating with a $293 price target, arguing that the market's reaction is overblown. With shares already down 30% in the past year and trading near their 52-week low, investors are split on whether it is a bargain or a falling knife.

    Some analysts are still backing the stock. Bernstein SocGen Group kept its Outperform rating, pointing to solid Q3 numbers, including 3.2% depletion growth and $2.03 billion in beer net sales. TD Cowen, on the other hand, is staying cautious with a Hold rating after Constellation's Q3 results came in weaker than expected. RBC Capital believes the stock is oversold, making it a potential buy for long-term investors willing to stomach the volatility. The company is betting on Modelo and Pacifico expansions to boost market share, but in the short term, it's all about weathering the tariff storm and proving its resilience.

    For now, investor sentiment is shaky. The stock has cratered 20% year-to-date. RBC Capital insists the worst may already be priced in, leaving room for a reboundbut that's assuming no further tariff surprises. With retail demand in question and macro pressures mounting, the real test for Constellation is whether it can regain investor confidence before more analysts start jumping ship.

    This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

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