The fourth-quarter earnings season for the drug and biotech sector will be in full swing this week with many large drugmakers like — Merck MRK, Pfizer PFE, Eli Lilly and Company LLY, Amgen AMGN and Bristol Myers Squibb BMY — due to announce results. Johnson & Johnson and AbbVie have already reported with both beating estimates for both earnings and sales. French drugmaker Sanofi came out with disappointing fourth-quarter results as it missed estimates for both earnings and sales.

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Per the Zacks classification, the pharma/biotech industry falls under the broader Medical sector, comprising pharma/biotech and generic companies, and medical device companies.

Per the Earnings Trendsreport, as of Jan 29, 12.3% of the companies in the Medical sector — representing 30.8% of the sector’s market capitalization — reported quarterly earnings. Of these, 85.7% beat on earnings, while 57.1% beat on revenues. Earnings increased 1.4% year over year, while revenues grew 6.6%. Overall, fourth-quarter earnings of the Medical sector are expected to increase 12.5% year over year, while revenues are likely to grow 8.6%.

Let’s see how things have shaped up for these companies ahead of their earnings announcements.

Merck

MRK’s performance has been solid, with the company exceeding earnings expectations in each of the trailing four quarters. It delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 37.57%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 4.67%.

Merck has an Earnings ESP of -2.98% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings for the fourth quarter is pegged at $15.56 billion and $1.69 per share, respectively.

Per our proven model, companies with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, #2 (Buy) or #3 have a good chance of delivering an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Merck’s top-line growth in the fourth quarter is likely to have been driven by blockbuster cancer drug Keytruda, like in several previous quarters, aided by additional indications and patient demand. The company is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results on Feb. 4, before market open.

Pfizer

PFE’s performance has been solid, with the company exceeding earnings expectations in each of the trailing four quarters. It delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 74.50%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 65.62%.

PFE has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings for the fourth quarter is pegged at $17.50 billion and 48 cents per share, respectively.

Though sales of Pfizer’s COVID products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid, declined in the past few quarters, it seems that sales have stabilized somewhat. The company’s non-COVID operational revenues have been driving its top-line growth, driven by its key in-line products like Vyndaqel and Eliquis, new launches like Abrysvo and newly acquired products like Nurtec, as well as those acquired from Seagen (December 2023). PFE is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results on Feb. 4, before the opening bell.

Eli Lilly and Company

LLY’s performance has been mixed, with the company exceeding earnings expectations in three of the trailing four quarters and missing the same on the remaining occasion. It delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.23%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered a negative earnings surprise of 22.37%.

Lilly has an Earnings ESP of -2.08% and a Zacks Rank #3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings for the fourth quarter is pegged at $13.48 billion and $5.15 per share, respectively.

In mid-January, Lilly lowered its sales guidance for full-year 2024 and announced disappointing preliminary sales numbers for the fourth quarter. Lilly expects revenues to be approximately $45.0 billion in full-year 2024, which falls short of its previous guidance range of $45.4 billion to $46.0 billion.

In the fourth quarter, revenues are expected to be approximately $13.5 billion, shy of the consensus estimate due to lower-than-expected sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound.

Higher demand and volume growth for LLY’s key growth drugs like Emgality, Olumiant, Retevmo, Taltz and Verzenio are likely to have provided top-line support in the fourth quarter, driven by increased demand trends. The company is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results on Feb. 6, before market open.

Amgen

AMGN’s performance has been strong, with earnings beating estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 4.10%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 9.20%.

AMGN has an Earnings ESP of +1.74% and a Zacks Rank #3, indicating a likely earnings beat this time around. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings for the fourth quarter is pegged at $8.86 billion and $5.03 per share, respectively.

Amgen’s product sales in the fourth quarter are expected to have been driven by strong volume growth of Evenity, Repatha, Prolia, Kyprolis and Blincyto, among others. However, prices of most products declined due to higher rebates to support expanded access. The company is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results on Feb. 4, after market close.

Bristol Myers Squibb

BMY’s performance has been strong, with earnings beating estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 15.54%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 20.81%.

BMY has an Earnings ESP of +0.43% and a Zacks Rank #3, indicating a likely earnings beat this time around. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings for the fourth quarter is pegged at $11.56 billion and $1.46 per share, respectively.

Consistent label expansions in newer metastatic and adjuvant indications are likely to have maintained momentum for the blockbuster immuno-oncology drug Opdivo in the fourth quarter.

Total revenues in the fourth quarter are likely to have increased on the back of growth in product franchise sales. Its growth portfolio primarily comprises sales from immuno-oncology drugs like Opdivo, Orencia, Yervoy, Reblozyl, Opdualag, Abecma, Zeposia, Breyanzi, Camzyos, Sotyku, Krazati and others. The company is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results on Feb. 6, before market open.

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