Investors in Carvana (NYSE:CVNA) have seen enviable returns of 465% over the past year

Simply Wall St.
03 Feb

While some are satisfied with an index fund, active investors aim to find truly magnificent investments on the stock market. When an investor finds a multi-bagger (a stock that goes up over 200%), it makes a big difference to their portfolio. For example, the Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) share price is up a whopping 465% in the last 1 year, a handsome return in a single year. It's also up 40% in about a month. And shareholders have also done well over the long term, with an increase of 69% in the last three years.

With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.

View our latest analysis for Carvana

While Carvana made a small profit, in the last year, we think that the market is probably more focussed on the top line growth at the moment. Generally speaking, we'd consider a stock like this alongside loss-making companies, simply because the quantum of the profit is so low. For shareholders to have confidence a company will grow profits significantly, it must grow revenue.

In the last year Carvana saw its revenue grow by 12%. That's not great considering the company is losing money. So the 465% gain in just twelve months is completely unexpected. We're happy that investors have made money, but we can't help questioning whether the rise is sustainable. This is an example of the huge profits some lucky shareholders occasionally make on growth stocks.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

NYSE:CVNA Earnings and Revenue Growth February 3rd 2025

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. If you are thinking of buying or selling Carvana stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Carvana shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 465% over the last year. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 23% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Carvana (including 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) .

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: most of them are flying under the radar).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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