Avery Shenfeld noted developments on U.S. trade policy have the greatest potential to move markets in the week ahead, with the Canadian dollar set to weaken or rebound depending on whether tariffs are, or aren't, imposed on February 1st. "We're not offering our guess, because we have little conviction on our ability to anticipate what the President will actually do at this point," the CIBC man said.
On the data front, Shenfeld said employment gains in the household survey (LFS) have looked "suspiciously high" relative to the SEPH (payrolls) data, and that may be reflecting an overstatement of Q4 population gains as the LFS catches up to earlier immigration numbers, and fails to fully pick up the slowing there. Next Friday, CIBC is expecting a deceleration in hiring and a return to a 6.8% jobless rate. "But we also look for wage gains to cool, with January being an important month in that series given the share of workers who have pay resets at the start of the year," Shenfeld added.
On Wednesday next, exports could show a lift from oil as well as U.S. purchases ahead of threatened tariffs, Shenfeld said.
(Also on the CIBC calendar for release next week is the January IVEY PMI data on Thursday.)
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