EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX, stocks bounce back after Trump pauses tariffs

Reuters
04 Feb
EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX, stocks bounce back after Trump pauses tariffs

MSCI global EM stocks index set for biggest gain since September

China slaps tariffs on US, expands mineral export control

Cooling economic activity key: Brazil central bank

MSCI Latam FX up 0.7%, stocks gain 1.2%

By Purvi Agarwal

Feb 4 (Reuters) - Emerging market currencies rose broadly and stocks were set for their biggest gains in months on Tuesday, on relief after U.S. President Donald Trump temporarily suspended tariffs on Mexico and Canada.

The global EM stocks measure .MSCIEF was up 1.9%, on track for its biggest gain since September 2024. MSCI's index tracking Latin American currencies .MILA00000CUS rose 0.7%, while the stocks gauge .MILA00000PUS gained 1.2%.

All regional bourses were higher, with Argentina's Merval .MERV up 1.7%, while Colombia's COLCAP .COLCAP gained 0.7%.

Trump relieved Mexico and Canada from tariffs for 30 days, as the countries came to border security agreements. Most EM assets recouped heavy declines from a volatile session on Monday, including the Mexican peso MXN= that had hit its lowest in nearly three years.

The currency was down 0.6% against the dollar. Mexican stocks .MXX were 0.9% higher in their first session of trading after the change in tariff policy.

"There is a little more confidence in all of this being more of a negotiating tactic on behalf of the U.S. administration," said Joel Kruger, strategist at LMAX Group.

"We suspect there will be more talks ahead but the ultimate goal is the U.S. making some headway but not rocking the boat too much so to spook investors."

Markets will watch for any changes in Mexico's stance on monetary policy against the backdrop of tariffs at the central bank's meeting later in the week.

China, however, could not escape the tariffs, and came back with limited countermeasures on U.S. imports and an expansion on control over mineral exports. Trump's call with the Chinese president, expected "very soon" according to the White House, will be awaited.

Still, Hong Kong stocks .HSI closed 2.8% higher.

Trump's threats of tariffs have kept EM investors on tenterhooks and clouded the growth outlook for EM economies, with many already grappling with fiscal concerns and prospects of higher for longer interest rates in the U.S.

Some relief over tariffs also boosted copper prices, lifting the Chilean peso CLP= and stocks .SPIPSA in the world's largest copper producer.

In the minutes of its last meeting, Brazil's central bank stressed that cooling economic activity is crucial for bringing inflation to target, while flagging risks from inflation expectations and an overheating economy.

The real BRBY= was 0.8% higher, trading around levels last seen in November and on track for its twelfth session of gains, in its longest streak in 20 years.

Brazil's Bovespa index .BVSP was the only outlier, down 0.3%, weighed by a 1% decline in oil heavy-weight Petrobras PETR4.SA after it reported a decrease in fourth-quarter production and lower sales and exports.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:

Equities

Latest

Daily % change

MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF

1094.58

1.94

MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS

2052.56

1.23

Brazil Bovespa .BVSP

125396.19

-0.27

Mexico IPC .MXX

51692.4

0.94

Chile IPSA .SPIPSA

7259.64

0.76

Argentina Merval .MERV

2526864.77

1.72

Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP

1515.67

0.72

Currencies

Latest

Daily % change

Brazil real BRL=

5.7646

0.72

Mexico peso MXN=

20.4497

-0.59

Chile peso CLP=

974.7

0.99

Colombia peso COP=

4157.47

0.02

Peru sol PEN=

3.6986

0.17

Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL

1053.25

0.05

Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB=

1200

1.67

(Reporting by Purvi Agarwal in BengaluruEditing by Marguerita Choy)

((Purvi.Agarwal@thomsonreuters.com;))

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