金吾财讯 | 国元国际发研报指，安踏体育(02020)2025年针对主品牌将延续2024年新业态的探索后的逐渐成熟和商业化拓展，包括超级安踏、安踏冠军、SNEAKERVERSE等新系列拓宽品牌在不同细分价格带或者产品领域的精细化竞争力。该行认为，安踏主品牌在已经具备一定影响力的背景下，通过集团成熟的品牌营销和产品研发能力有望通过业态延展突破品牌下一步发展空间，该行将持续关注。除了主品牌动态外，公司其他品牌均为户外高增赛道的强竞争力和影响力品牌，在户外话题及热度保持上升态势的背景下，相关品牌2025年有望延续高增表现。该行回顾公司全年流水，Q1、Q2表现符合预期，Q3零售表现受社零环境影响略低于预期，Q4流水恢复至增长状态。展望2025年，该行认为公司整体在新业态和户外赛道的动力加持下依旧有潜力保持增长态势，建议持续关注。该行预计FY24E至FY26E营收分别为696.6/771.7/859.2亿元，同比+11.7%/+10.8%/+11.3%；归母净利润分别为131.2/137.0/155.0亿元，同比+28.1%/+4.4%/+13.2%。维持买入评级，目标价104.5港元，对应24E财年的PE约20倍，目标价较现价预计升幅为27.2%。
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