Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information. With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure.
The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Paramount Global-B (PARA) earns a Zacks Rank #3 23 days from its next quarterly earnings release on February 26, 2025, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $0.11 a share.
PARA has an Earnings ESP figure of 5.44%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $0.11 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.10.
PARA is just one of a large group of Consumer Discretionary stocks with a positive ESP figure. Wolverine World Wide (WWW) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.
Slated to report earnings on February 19, 2025, Wolverine World Wide holds a #1 (Strong Buy) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and it's Most Accurate Estimate is $0.42 a share 16 days from its next quarterly update.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Wolverine World Wide is $0.41, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of 2.44%.
PARA and WWW's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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