Trump Tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China to Start Saturday. Here's Why They May Be "Just the Warm-up."

Dow Jones
01 Feb

President also promises other levies — such as for oil and gas on Feb. 18 — while tariff watchers should eye an April 1 report.

President Donald Trump and his press secretary said Friday that tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China will come on Saturday, with Trump stating that there’s no way those countries can avoid the levies.

Before Trump’s remarks in the Oval Office, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the president “will be implementing 25% tariffs on Mexico, 25% tariffs on Canada and a 10% tariff on China for the illegal fentanyl that they have sourced and allowed to [be distributed] into our country.”

Trump and other U.S. officials have been promising that such tariffs would hit, leaving analysts to assess how big their effects could be and what else might be ahead.

A Reuters report on Friday said Trump might announce new tariffs against Canada and Mexico that start on March 1 and include a process for exemptions. In a similar vein, a Wall Street Journal report late Thursday said Trump aides were seeking an 11th-hour deal to dial back the tariffs on the two countries.

Leavitt on Friday afternoon said the Reuters report was false.

When asked about an exemption for oil imports, Leavitt said she didn’t have an update or readout on exemptions, but details would be available to the public Saturday.

Trump himself said later Friday that Canadian crude oil wouldn’t see tariffs of 25%, but rather 10%.

In addition, the president said Friday that other broad tariffs would be coming, such as on oil CL00 BRN00 and natural gas NG00 around Feb. 18. Speaking with reporters in the Oval Office, he also said there would be tariffs on steel, copper HG00 , computer chips SMH, pharmaceuticals PJP and the European Union.

Another key date for tariff watchers is April 1, which is the deadline in one of the president’s executive orders for a report on the causes of persistent U.S. trade deficits as well as proposed remedies.

“As we approach the Feb. 1 deadline, we will most likely see volatility and emotional forecasts based on Trump’s tariff decision, but don’t get too comfortable either way — this is just the warm-up. The main show is in April,” said Kevin Muir, a former institutional trader who runs the Macro Tourist, a blog that analyzes macroeconomic bets. In a post on Friday morning, he also said: “Although the market will not be pleased with tariffs, it’s really the April deadline that will signal the long-term decision.”

Trump’s nominee for commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, indicated Wednesday that the April report will offer “the big tariff view,” while a levy against Canada and Mexico would be “not a tariff, per se,” but rather “an action of domestic policy” tied to the “short-term issue” of illegal migration and drug trafficking.

Trump had said that Canada and Mexico could face American tariffs of 25% starting Saturday unless they sufficiently help his administration crack down on illegal immigration into the U.S. as well as the inflow of fentanyl, a drug that’s driven an overdose crisis. He also has been threatening a 10% tariff on China over fentanyl concerns.

The potential tariffs against neighboring countries “clearly fall into the ‘negotiation tool’ bucket, which we think makes it much less likely that Trump will tolerate significant economic pain for an extended period in this case,” wrote Tobin Marcus, head of U.S. policy and politics at Wolfe Research, in a note Thursday.

“We think the goal here is something like the Colombia case last weekend, where Trump was able to get a policy win at minimal cost,” Marcus said. The Wolfe Research expert also said his team expects that if Trump imposes the tariffs on Canada and Mexico, they’ll be short-lived.

Americans buy $900 billion a year in food, cars, TVs, toys, appliances and other products from Mexico and Canada, and the cost of these products could rise with 25% tariffs, as MarketWatch has noted. The neighbors to the north and south are the biggest trading partners of the U.S., accounting for almost 30% of all imported goods.

The S&P 500 stock index SPX pulled back sharply on Thursday afternoon in the wake of Trump’s comments during the trading session, but erased most of those declines by the session’s close. The equity gauge had traded higher Friday but lost ground in the wake of Leavitt’s comments and finished down 0.5%.

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