DWS:料美国首季通胀数据向好 3月及6月减息机会犹存但力度料减弱

智通财经
Feb 04, 2025

智通财经APP获悉,DWS首席美国经济学家Christian Scherrmann就1月美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议发表评论指出,展望未来,预计美国首季通胀数据料向好,3月及6月减息机会犹存,但目前风险倾向于减息力度减弱而非增强。美联储已累计加息100个基点,处于可进可退的有利位置,但目前加息的机会相当低。

美联储一如预期,在1月的FOMC会议上维持利率不变。美联储主席鲍威尔于会后记者会上表示,声明中删除“通胀进一步放缓”等字眼仅属调整性质,不应被视为政策讯号。鲍威尔重申通胀已明显回落,就业市场亦未构成价格压力。

然而,美联储并不急于调整货币政策,强调局方未有既定时间表,会因应形势灵活应对。他强调进一步减息的条件是通胀数据持续改善或就业市场明显转弱。目前,他认为货币政策依然处于有效收紧水平,是恰当的策略。至于政治因素可能带来的影响,他表示需要待相关政策“具体成形”,才能评估其对货币政策的影响。

美联储官员似乎正争取观察空间。市场早已预期,通胀降温“最后一里路”需时,近期通胀和就业数据亦支持放缓宽松政策步伐。关税、开支及移民等政治不确定性,均可能推高物价,故更审慎和重视数据的做法实属合理。

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10