Asia Week Ahead: Inflation and GDP Data Plus Central Bank Decisions in Focus

MT Newswires
03 Feb

A busy week lies ahead for Asian markets, with a flurry of economic data releases and central bank decisions on the calendar.

From inflation and GDP figures to interest rate announcements, markets will have plenty of information to digest.

Investors will also keep an eye on any tariff announcements by US President Donald Trump as they could significantly impact markets.

MONDAY, Feb. 3

Data from S&P Global painted a mixed picture of Asia's manufacturing sector in January. While some economies showed signs of recovery and expansion, others struggled.

Indonesia's factory activity continued its upward trajectory, with the Manufacturing PMI climbing to 51.9 from 51.2.

This marked the second consecutive month of expansion and the fastest pace of growth since May 2024, driven by higher output and new orders.

Data showed that India also recorded increased factory activity in January.

At the same time, the manufacturing sector in Australia and South Korea showed signs of recovery, with their respective PMI rising above the 50-point threshold separating growth from contraction.

On the other hand, China, Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines recorded weaker factory activities in January than in December 2024.

Malaysia's manufacturing industry remained under pressure. While the uptick in PMI suggests a slight easing in contraction, the sector has now experienced eight straight months of decline.

Vietnam's manufacturing industry remained in contractionary territory. The Manufacturing PMI slid to 48.9 from 49.8, indicating worsening conditions in the factory sector.

A downturn in Thailand's factory activity was also recorded as the Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.6 from 51.4.

Meanwhile, government data showed Indonesia's annual inflation rate sharply cooled to 0.76% in January from 1.57% in the previous month. It represented the lowest rate since March 2000.

Hong Kong's economy grew 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024 from a year earlier. This is faster than the 1.9% growth in the third quarter and slightly higher than the predicted 2.3% growth.

For retail sales, the decline widened to 11.5% in December from 8.4% the previous month.

WEDNESDAY, Feb. 5

Philippine inflation may settle between 2.5% and 3.3% in January from 2.9% in December, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas said in a Jan. 31 statement.

Higher oil, food, and water prices may have driven costs upward, along with adjustments in sin taxes. Food prices may have remained high due to the lingering effects of weather disturbances. However, lower rice prices and electricity rates may have helped tame inflation, the BSP said.

In South Korea, January inflation is seen accelerating to between 1.97% and 2.1% from 1.90% in December, according to market forecasts. Citi research analysts predict South Korea's headline CPI in January hit 2.0% for the first time since September.

Similarly, Thailand's inflation likely accelerated to 1.5% in January from 1.23% the previous month, partly due to a minimum wage hike, Citi analysts said.

Low inflation is likely to persist throughout 2025, which could provide the Thai central bank a reason to cut rates in the coming months, Capital Economics said in a note.

Indonesia will provide an update on its economic performance in the last three months of 2024. ANZ Research expects the country's Q4 GDP to show softening headline growth, with high-frequency data pointing to softer consumption.

Other key data due Wednesday are the private sector activity of Hong Kong and Singapore, the China Caixin services and composite PMIs, and Singapore's retail sales.

THURSDAY, Feb. 6

Vietnam will release several January indicators, including trade balance, inflation numbers, retail sales, industrial output, and tourist arrivals.

The Philippines will announce its jobless rate for December, while Australia will publish trade data.

FRIDAY, Feb. 7

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Friday, Reuters reported.

Despite the rupee's recent record lows, the RBI's recent market interventions and declining food inflation suggest it has room to ease monetary policy, UOB economist Lee Sue Ann said in a note.

Taiwan's first 2025 trade and inflation figures will also be out on Friday.

The data will provide insights into the strength of export momentum following a 2024 boom driven by AI and whether inflation has moderated to the 2% target. These prints could significantly impact expectations for Taiwan's economy and the central bank's policy stance.

SUNDAY, Feb. 9

China will release January inflation data.

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