Shareholders might have noticed that Patrick Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:PATK) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.5% to US$94.75 in the past week. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$3.7b and statutory earnings per share of US$4.11 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Patrick Industries is executing in line with expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Patrick Industries

Following the latest results, Patrick Industries' nine analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$3.94b in 2025. This would be a reasonable 6.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 27% to US$5.22. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$3.92b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.07 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Patrick Industries' earnings potential following these results.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$102, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Patrick Industries analyst has a price target of US$120 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$73.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Patrick Industries shareholders.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Patrick Industries' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 6.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 9.1% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Patrick Industries is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Patrick Industries following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Patrick Industries' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Patrick Industries going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Patrick Industries that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.