For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to investors, even if it currently lacks a track record of revenue and profit. But the reality is that when a company loses money each year, for long enough, its investors will usually take their share of those losses. A loss-making company is yet to prove itself with profit, and eventually the inflow of external capital may dry up.
In contrast to all that, many investors prefer to focus on companies like Potbelly (NASDAQ:PBPB), which has not only revenues, but also profits. While this doesn't necessarily speak to whether it's undervalued, the profitability of the business is enough to warrant some appreciation - especially if its growing.
Check out our latest analysis for Potbelly
In business, profits are a key measure of success; and share prices tend to reflect earnings per share (EPS) performance. So for many budding investors, improving EPS is considered a good sign. It's an outstanding feat for Potbelly to have grown EPS from US$0.17 to US$1.28 in just one year. While it's difficult to sustain growth at that level, it bodes well for the company's outlook for the future.
Careful consideration of revenue growth and earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) margins can help inform a view on the sustainability of the recent profit growth. Potbelly's EBIT margins are flat but, worryingly, its revenue is actually down. This does not bode too well for short term growth prospects and so understanding the reasons for these results is of great importance.
In the chart below, you can see how the company has grown earnings and revenue, over time. To see the actual numbers, click on the chart.
While we live in the present moment, there's little doubt that the future matters most in the investment decision process. So why not check this interactive chart depicting future EPS estimates, for Potbelly?
Investors are always searching for a vote of confidence in the companies they hold and insider buying is one of the key indicators for optimism on the market. This view is based on the possibility that stock purchases signal bullishness on behalf of the buyer. Of course, we can never be sure what insiders are thinking, we can only judge their actions.
We note that Potbelly insiders spent US$192k on stock, over the last year; in contrast, we didn't see any selling. That's nice to see, because it suggests insiders are optimistic. We also note that it was the company insider, David Nierenberg, who made the biggest single acquisition, paying US$70k for shares at about US$9.24 each.
On top of the insider buying, it's good to see that Potbelly insiders have a valuable investment in the business. As a matter of fact, their holding is valued at US$50m. That shows significant buy-in, and may indicate conviction in the business strategy. As a percentage, this totals to 13% of the shares on issue for the business, an appreciable amount considering the market cap.
Potbelly's earnings per share growth have been climbing higher at an appreciable rate. Just as heartening; insiders both own and are buying more stock. This quick rundown suggests that the business may be of good quality, and also at an inflection point, so maybe Potbelly deserves timely attention. It is worth noting though that we have found 2 warning signs for Potbelly that you need to take into consideration.
The good news is that Potbelly is not the only stock with insider buying. Here's a list of small cap, undervalued companies in the US with insider buying in the last three months!
Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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