Assurant, Inc. AIZ is slated to report fourth-quarter 2024 earnings on Feb. 11, after the closing bell. AIZ delivered an earnings surprise in each of the last four quarters, the average beat being 20.32%.

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Factors to Note

Solid performance at the Global Housing segment, as well as growth in Global Lifestyle, is likely to have aided the fourth-quarter performance of Assurant.

Revenues are likely to have benefited from improved net earned premiums and higher net investment income. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $3.05 billion, suggesting growth of 1.7% from the year-ago quarter’s level. 

Net earned premiums are expected to have benefited from higher premiums in the Global Housing and Global Lifestyle segments.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter net earned premiums, fees and other income is pegged at $2.5 billion. We expect net earned premiums to be $2.4 billion in the to-be-reported quarter. We expect fees and other income to increase 2.7% to $446.2 million in the fourth quarter.

Net investment income is likely to have gained from higher yields and asset balances in fixed maturity securities. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter net investment income is pegged at $134 million. We expect net investment income to be $142.8 million.

Global Housing is expected to have been driven by Homeowners top-line growth, including growth in policies in-force and higher average premiums within lender-placed insurance as well as growth across various specialty products.
The non-run rate adjustment is likely to have offset the decrease. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the segment’s fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $637 million, suggesting growth of 9.8% from the year-ago quarter’s level. We expect the segment’s revenues to be $607.8 million.

Global Lifestyle is likely to have benefited from Connected Living from mobile growth, including contributions from newly launched trade-in programs and global device protection programs. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the segment’s fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $2.4 billion. We expect the segment’s revenues to be $2.3 billion.

Total benefits, losses and expenses might have escalated because of higher underwriting and selling, general and administrative expenses. We expect total expenses to be $2.6 billion. 

Continued share buybacks are likely to have aided the bottom line in the to-be-reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at $3.96 per share, suggesting a decline of 13.5% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

What Our Quantitative Model Unveils

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Assurant this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: Assurant has an Earnings ESP of +9.37%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $4.33 is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.96. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: AIZ carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

Other Stocks to Consider

Some other insurance stocks with the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this time around are:

Brighthouse Financial, Inc. BFH has an Earnings ESP of +0.82% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at $4.44, indicating a year-over-year increase of 52%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

BFH’s earnings beat estimates in two of the last four reported quarters and missed in the other two.

Primerica, Inc. PRI has an Earnings ESP of +0.03% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at $4.96, indicating an increase of 16.7% from the year-ago reported figure. 

PRI’s earnings beat estimates in two of the last four reported quarters and missed in the other two.

Trupanion, Inc. TRUP has an Earnings ESP of +168.42% and sports a Zacks Rank of 1 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at 6 cents, indicating an increase of 220% from the year-ago reported figure. 

TRUP’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters

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Assurant, Inc. (AIZ) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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