FMC (FMC) shares fell past 34% in recent Wednesday trading after Morgan Stanley and RBC Capital Markets slashed their respective price targets on the company after it posted Q4 results and issued outlook for Q1 and 2025.
RBC analysts said the chemical manufacturer provided a "weak" outlook for Q1 and full year 2025, expecting only around 1% growth in annual earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or EBITDA, to reach about $910 million at the midpoint. The full-year outlook is 12% lower than RBC's own estimates and falls short of consensus estimates of around $1.04 billion.
FMC had previously indicated that a reduction in inventory was coming to an end, and most investors had expected EBITDA growth in the mid-teens percentage range, driven by higher volumes and lower fixed costs, they said.
Morgan Stanley analysts said they do not expect investors to become more engaged with FMC shares until the company demonstrates its ability to meet its 2025 EBITDA guidance of $870 million to $950 million, thus establishing a solid EBITDA base.
They also said they expect investors to focus on two key points: how the company has renegotiated pricing for 25% of its diamide volume with branded partners, and how FMC now expects more competition from generic versions of its key diamide, Rynaxypyr, to come sooner and in more markets than initially expected.
Morgan Stanley adjusted its price target on FMC to $46 from $70 while keeping an equalweight rating. RBC Capital downgraded the stock to sector perform from outperform and cut its price target to $47 from $78.
Price: 35.50, Change: -18.54, Percent Change: -34.31
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