智通财经APP获悉,中原地产研究部高级联席董事杨明仪指出,本周 CVI 最新报 50.35 点,较上周的 48.43 点上升 1.92 点。CVI 重新回到 50 点的好坏分界线之上,但需要站稳并继续向上,楼价才会有突破,短期楼价将以横盘僵持为主。农历新年后,市场氛围回暖,多个区域的新楼盘蓄势待发,港股稳定在 2 万点以上,加上本地拆息持续回落,银行资金成本压力逐渐缓解。市场预计减息周期将持续,中美在贸易方面或有机会进行谈判协商,这对本地息口及楼价会产生影响,未来几周 CVI 的走势至关重要。
2024 年 2 月底政府全面取消楼市 “辣招” 后,楼市成交量回升,CVI 从低位反弹,同期 CCL 从 143.02 点的低位止跌回稳。CVI 从 14.49 点连续上涨 9 周,曾升至 73.73 点,并连续 6 周处于 60 点以上,CCL 摆脱低位,在 144 点到 148 点之间窄幅波动。但之后 CVI 落入 40 点至 60 点的好坏分界区间,楼价上涨动力受阻,存在下调风险。6 月初 CVI 进一步跌破 40 点,此前 20 周处于看跌区间,这反映出楼市进入调整阶段。同期楼价持续向下调整,且抹去了取消 “辣招” 后的所有涨幅。
9 月减息周期启动及 10 月施政报告发布后,CVI 稳步上升,并且上穿 40 点及 50 点两个重要关口,同期楼价反复回稳。CCL 最新报 138.53 点,较减息前的 135.86 点低位上涨 1.97%,2025 年楼价暂时累计上涨 0.65%。
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