Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:LITE) last week reported its latest quarterly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Revenues were a bright spot, with US$402m in revenue arriving 2.9% ahead of expectations, although statutory earnings didn't fare nearly so well, recording a loss of US$0.88, some 2.0% below consensus predictions. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Lumentum Holdings

After the latest results, the 15 analysts covering Lumentum Holdings are now predicting revenues of US$1.61b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a decent 14% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 57% to US$3.27. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.59b and losses of US$3.29 per share in 2025.

The average price target fell 6.6% to US$100.00, with the ongoing losses seemingly a concern for the analysts, despite the lack of real change to the earnings forecasts. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Lumentum Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$125 and the most bearish at US$70.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that Lumentum Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 30% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 3.9% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 8.7% per year. Not only are Lumentum Holdings' revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Lumentum Holdings analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Lumentum Holdings (1 is a bit concerning!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.