美银证券全球商品团队将2025和2026年布兰特原油价格预测，分别从每桶65美元和每桶63美元上调至每桶75美元和每桶73美元，以反映OPEC+延迟增产，美国财政部对俄罗斯能源业采取新的制裁措施；以及对伊朗采取鹰派取态。
考虑到油价假设的变化，美银证券将中国石油(00857.HK) 2025和2026财政年度盈利预测分别上调5%和6%各至1,550亿及1,530亿元人民币，对其目标价相应由7.8元升至8元，评级“买入”。由于中石油近年盈利对原油价格的敏感度下降，尽管布兰特原油价格上升15%，预期盈利不会大幅上升。
美银证券指，在能源股中，中石油是该行首选，因为预期中石油将受惠于油价上涨，以及看好2025财政年度天然气业务盈利表现，因天然气平均售价有弹性，加上与油价挂钩的进口成本下降，令天然气边际利润扩阔。加上该股0.7倍市账率的估值吸引，及高股息率，2025年股息率料为8%以上。另外，该行预计中石油2024年第四季盈利为325亿元人民币，按年增长10%。(ha/w)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-02-04 16:25。)
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