金吾财讯 | 航运股盘初走强，截至发稿，秦港股份(03369)涨5.1%，中远海能(01138)涨3.22%，中远海控(01919)涨1.57%，东方海外国际(00316)跟张。消息面上，中信证券指出，春节前美国对俄伊原油制裁升级的效果持续显现。复盘历史，未来油运贸易流向的二次重塑或可期。测算制裁升级后2025年VLCC供需增速差有望提升至3.8pcts。继续看好制裁推动油轮拐点的提前到来，建议择机布局相关企业。
光大证券研报称，2025年随宏观经济向好，中国原油需求有望贡献一定增量，且OPEC+即将进入增产周期，25年油运需求依然有望得到增长。由于20－22年原油轮新签合同量较低，24年运力增长较为缓慢，叠加VLCC船队老龄化严重，随着拆解周期临近，我们看好原油轮拆解量有望逐渐对冲远期新增运力投放。Clarksons在2024年12月预计25年原油轮供需差为-1.1%，VLCC供需差为-1.9%，本次制裁令生效后，原油轮的运力退出有望加速，油运供需紧张确定性有望进一步增强，运价中枢有望持续提升。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.