EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX, stocks to end week of tariff-linked volatilility higher

Reuters
07 Feb
EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX, stocks to end week of tariff-linked volatilility higher

Annual inflation rate accelerates in Chile, slows in Mexico

MSCI Latam FX, stocks indexes set for weekly gains

MSCI Latam FX 0.4%, stocks add 0.2%

By Purvi Agarwal

Feb 7 (Reuters) - Latin American currencies and stocks were broadly higher on Friday, after days of tariff-linked volatility, with indexes tracking both set for their fifth week of gains.

MSCI's index tracking Latam currencies .MILA00000CUS was 0.4% higher, near levels last seen in October, while the stocks measure .MILA00000PUS was up 0.2%.

Most EM assets fell on Monday after the start of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs, but recovered ground through the week after he paused tariffs on Canada and Mexico for a month.

Trade worries, however, did not go away as U.S. tariffs on China came into effect and the country hit back with limited duties on U.S. goods, impacting the index tracking global EM currencies .MIEM00000CUS, set to end the week flat.

A mixed jobs report in the U.S. did little to change the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve on interest rates.

"I don't see the jobs numbers having a material impact. But if there's a trend toward a much slower path of U.S. growth, currencies in these markets will have some negative impact," said Josh Kaplan, head of research and investment strategy at MarketVector.

The Colombian peso COP= led gains among regional currencies, rising 0.9% to its highest level since August. The technical team of the central bank said they see a higher interest rate than expected by market.

Chile's peso CLP= was up 0.4%, after copper prices hit a three-month high. MET/L

Data showed Chile's annual inflation accelerated, remaining above the central bank's target range in January, while Mexico's slowed slightly more than expected, a day after the local central bank delivered a 50 basis point cut.

The Mexican peso MXN= bucked the trend, with a 0.4% decline, also set for a weekly loss.

"The long term trend for the peso has been depreciation against the dollar and I cannot see anything going forward that's going to reverse that... short term, the peso will react to any sort of reconciliation with the US," said Kaplan.

Argentina's peso ARS= was little changed. Analysts nudged down their forecasts for this year's inflation, but were more upbeat about economic growth.

Stock indexes in the region were broadly mixed. Mexican stocks .MXX were up 0.3%, while ones in Chile .SPIPSA were down 0.4%.

The index in Brazil .BVSP was down 0.4%, dragged down by Bradesco's BBDC3.SA 3.2% decline despite expecting higher net interest income in 2025. The real BRL= was little changed.

Highlights:

** Chile's Codelco targets 1.391 million tons of copper output in 2025 - document

** India central bank set to allow trading in bond forwards

** Brazil's finance minister sees policies driving FX to more appropriate level

** Russian economy grew by 4.1% in 2024, slightly exceeding forecasts

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:

Equities

Latest

Daily % change

MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF

1109.43

0.65

MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS

2074.32

0.22

Brazil Bovespa .BVSP

125717.31

-0.4

Mexico IPC .MXX

52841.27

0.32

Chile IPSA .SPIPSA

7270.87

-0.42

Argentina Merval .MERV

2506382.56

0.12

Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP

1523.67

-0.1

Currencies

Latest

Daily % change

Brazil real BRL=

5.74

0.38

Mexico peso MXN=

20.5042

-0.36

Chile peso CLP=

957.6

0.43

Colombia peso COP=

4097.06

0.85

Peru sol PEN=

3.7125

-0.01

Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL

1053.75

0.02

Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB=

1185

2.11

(Reporting by Purvi Agarwal in Bengaluru; editing by Barbara Lewis)

((Purvi.Agarwal@thomsonreuters.com;))

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