It's been a good week for Accuray Incorporated (NASDAQ:ARAY) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 9.0% to US$2.43. Accuray beat expectations by 5.3% with revenues of US$116m. It also surprised on the earnings front, with an unexpected statutory profit of US$0.02 per share a nice improvement on the losses that the analysts forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Accuray

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Accuray's four analysts is for revenues of US$467.6m in 2025. This reflects a reasonable 3.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 53% to US$0.02. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$466.9m and losses of US$0.027 per share in 2025. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed Accuray'sfuture looks a little different to the past, with a considerable decrease in the loss per share forecasts in particular.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$6.13, suggesting that reduced loss estimates are not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Accuray analyst has a price target of US$7.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$5.50. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Accuray's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 6.5% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.3% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.8% per year. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Accuray is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Accuray analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Accuray's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.