金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，近期特朗普政府宣布对华加征10%关税，并取消小额免税待遇。该行判断新的关税环境对于跨境电商主要有三个维度影响：直接的关税成本、海关操作费用、履约时效扰动，上述因素对于海外仓备货模式扰动不大，但对跨境小包模式确有波及。以Temu 40美元客单价包裹为例，若不考虑成本在产业链传导，关税变动对终端定价带来的定价压力为26%，Temu与亚马逊同款商品价格差或将从40%缩窄到27%。该行指，从影响来看：1）拼多多近期股价受关税情绪扰动波动较大；2）以亚马逊为主要销售渠道的跨境电商卖家多数为海外仓备货模式，该行判断受关税扰动有限。
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