The series of new record highs for the gold price has been great news not only for investors in physical bullion but also for investors buying S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stocks.
Earlier this week, the yellow metal topped US$2,867 per ounce. It's currently fetching US$2,857.77 per ounce, which is a remarkable 40% increase from this time last year.
And it's driven some outsized returns from ASX 200 gold stocks.
Here's how they've performed over the past 12 months (not including the dividends many of the big gold producers pay their shareholders):
Taking a step back for the bigger picture, the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) – which also contains some smaller miners outside of the ASX 200 gold stocks – has rocketed 53.5% in 12 months.
For some context, the ASX 200 has gained 11.8% in a year.
And with Citi's revised gold price forecast in mind, 2025 could see ASX gold shares continue to outshine the wider market.
"The gold bull market looks set to continue under Trump 2.0," Citigroup's analysts said (quoted by The Australian Financial Review).
Amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and fears US President Donald Trump will usher in a global trade war, Citi upgraded its three-month gold price target from US$2,800 to US$3,000 per ounce. That's 5% above current levels and would certainly come as good news for ASX 200 gold stocks.
Citi also noted that the strong outlook for the US dollar would likely support continued central bank buying in 2025, particularly among developing countries looking to support their domestic currencies.
Commenting on the trade war implications on the gold price, ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes said (quoted by the AFR), "Traders remain concerned that the US may place tariffs on precious metal imports into the US following President Trump's recent moves against Canada, Mexico and China."
As for any potential buy the dip in the gold price in 2025, Citi noted, "A Russia/Ukraine peace deal, and confirmation of whether gold would be exempt from broad tariffs (or not), could provide a buying opportunity over the next two to three months."
The strong performance for ASX 200 gold stocks in 2024 came amid 40 new record highs for the gold price.
Commenting on the outlook for 2025, Louise Street, senior markets analyst at the World Gold Council, said:
In 2025, we expect central banks to remain in the driving seat and gold ETF investors to join the fray, especially if we see lower, albeit volatile interest rates. On the other hand, jewellery weakness will likely continue as high gold prices and soft economic growth squeeze consumer spending power.
Geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty should be prevalent themes this year, supporting demand for gold as store of wealth and hedge against risk.
As for how the surging gold price is likely to influence Aussie investors this year, Shaokai Fan, head of Asia-Pacific (ex-China) and global head of central banks at the World Gold Council, said:
With global conditions largely supportive of gold and the Australian dollar possibly facing pressure, we anticipate gold's role as a high-performing diversifier in Australian investment portfolios will continue to grow in 2025.
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