• Comparable Diluted Earnings Per Share (EPS) for 2024: $3.17, up from $2.90 in 2023.
• Fourth Quarter 2024 Comparable Diluted EPS: $0.84, an increase of 7.7% from $0.78 in Q4 2023.
• Full Year 2024 Comparable Net Earnings: $977 million.
• Fourth Quarter 2024 Comparable Net Earnings: $250 million.
• Shareholder Returns in 2024: $1.96 billion via share repurchases and dividends.
• 2025 EPS Growth Target: 11% to 14% comparable diluted EPS growth.
• 2025 Global Volume Growth Expectation: 2% to 3%.
• 2025 Net Debt to Comparable EBITDA Target: 2.75 times.
• 2025 Capital Expenditure (CapEx) Expectation: Approximately $600 million.
• 2025 Effective Tax Rate on Comparable Earnings: Slightly above 22%.
• 2025 Interest Expense Expectation: Approximately $270 million.
• Share Repurchase Authorization: $4 billion through the end of 2027.

• Warning! GuruFocus has detected 7 Warning Signs with BALL.

Release Date: February 04, 2025

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

Positive Points

• Ball Corp (NYSE:BALL) returned $1.96 billion to shareholders via share repurchases and dividends in 2024, with plans to repurchase at least $3 billion of shares between 2024 and 2025.
• The company reported a 9.3% increase in fourth-quarter 2024 comparable diluted earnings per share, reaching $0.84 compared to $0.78 in the fourth quarter of 2023.
• Ball Corp (NYSE:BALL) anticipates 11% to 14% comparable diluted EPS growth in 2025, driven by operational performance, volume growth, and productivity gains.
• The company has secured over 85% of its 2026 volume under contract, including a significant extension with a major customer, ensuring long-term stability.
• Ball Corp (NYSE:BALL) is investing in a new can plant in Oregon and has acquired a beverage can facility in Florida, which will enhance capacity and support future growth.

Negative Points

• Ball Corp (NYSE:BALL) faced softer than expected volume in North America due to persistent economic pressure on end consumers and exposure to the US domestic beer market.
• The company experienced supply-demand tightness in Brazil, impacting volume growth due to slower than expected ramp-up of vital capacity.
• Fourth-quarter global beverage can shipments were down low single digits year over year, indicating challenges in maintaining volume growth.
• Ball Corp (NYSE:BALL) anticipates a challenging first quarter in 2025 due to tough comparisons and headwinds from poor weather across the US in January.
• The company is facing potential risks from tariffs affecting the aluminum supply chain, which could impact volume and supply chain dynamics.

Q & A Highlights

Q: How have tariffs affected Ball Corp's guidance, particularly regarding aluminum supply and Mexican shipments? A: Daniel Fisher, CEO, explained that while tariffs have posed challenges, Ball Corp has mitigated potential impacts, particularly from the aluminum supply chain in China. The company has renegotiated deals and enforced contract elements, reducing a potential $40-$50 million issue to a few million dollars. The main concern remains the potential impact on end consumer demand if tariffs significantly affect Mexican shipments.

Q: How will recent investments, including the Florida can business, affect Ball Corp's earnings and volume growth? A: Daniel Fisher, CEO, stated that these investments are additive to Ball Corp's growth outlook, particularly from 2026 onwards. The investments are aligned with customer needs and are expected to enhance operational efficiency without altering CapEx plans. Howard Yu, CFO, added that the Northwest investment is within the existing CapEx envelope.

Q: What is Ball Corp's strategy for growth in North America, given the unpredictable volume trends? A: Daniel Fisher, CEO, expressed confidence in North America's growth potential, citing stable contracts and incremental volume pickups. The company is focusing on aligning with the right customers and partners to outperform market growth. Pricing for renewed contracts remains stable, and Ball Corp is positioned to benefit from anti-plastic sentiment in certain regions.

Q: How does Ball Corp plan to address the competitive environment in North America, especially with potential pricing risks? A: Daniel Fisher, CEO, acknowledged the competitive landscape but emphasized Ball Corp's strategic asset positioning and strong relationships with key partners. The company has secured favorable pricing and contract renewals, which are expected to support margin expansion and cash flow.

Q: What are Ball Corp's expectations for volume growth in Europe and South America in 2025? A: Daniel Fisher, CEO, indicated that Europe is expected to continue its strong growth trajectory, driven by low can penetration and sustainability trends. In South America, Ball Corp anticipates growth above long-term ranges, with recovery in Argentina and Chile and continued growth in Brazil.

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.