金吾财讯 | 招银国际发研报指，内地TOP10房企的1月单月合同销售额按年下跌1.5%，新盘供应缩减。该行预计2025年全年新房销售额增速下跌11%至7万亿人民币，二手房成交额增5%达7.5万亿人民币，正式超越新房成为行业主导市场。选股方面，该行建议关注商业运营能力较强的标的如华润置地(01109)、龙湖集团(00960)等，由于开发持续缩量，零售业务更具备风险抵御性。经济企稳迹象时零售业务较开发业务率先受益。同时在当前融资环境下零售资产是相对更易获得增量融资的资产。该行建议关注存量市场发展受益者。交易角度，贝壳(02423)作为绝对龙头将长期受益于二手房换手率提升与其带来的装修业务机会。从服务角度，物业管理存量市场的长期受益者，建议关注如华润万象生活(01209)、绿城服务(02869)、保利物业(06049)、滨江服务(03316)、万物云(02602)等。开发商方面，建议关注持续获得优质可售资源标的如拿低强度和拿地质量双优的企业。短期也可关注信用修复取得较大转折的房企。
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