金吾财讯 | 招银国际表示，未来三个月，维持可选消费板块同步大市。12月的消费数据来看，除了家电行业，其他普遍较为惨淡。但进入25年1月，各行业普遍都录得环比改善，该行认为是受惠于: 1)春节提前令消费前置，2)某些行业有国家补贴，加上春节连假较多，令消费氛围较好，3)天气虽然较去年暖，但过年前转冷及时，4)各大品牌都提前和加大力度促销等。分行业来说，体育用品和家电行业好于预期，服装和旅游-酒店行业符合预期，而餐饮行业则低于预期。
展望1季度，该行的看法比较审慎乐观，但认为2月的消费数据很可能岀现回调，因为大环境不好、天气不利以及旺季的吸虹效应等因素都可能使得节日后的需求出现断崖式下跌。但品牌之间的表现也越来越分化，明显看到大品牌的策略和优势开始奏效。
该行推荐安踏(02020，买入)、江南布衣(03306，买入)、瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY US，买入)、百胜中国(09987/ YUMC US，买入)、达势股份(01405，买入)、亚朵酒店(ATAT US，买入)、海尔智家(06690/ 600690 CH，买入)、JS环球(01691，买入)。
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