【基本面+资金面都很强势的情况下，锰硅短期逢回调低多为主】金十期货2月6日讯，国际方面，美国1月ADP就业人数录得18.3万人。国内方面，新年伊始，氧化铝、锰硅等多个行业供需产业链开始出现调整，关注“两会”预期发酵情况。中辉期货分析师吴明近认为，综合来看，特朗普政策不确定性较大，盘面隐含波动率增强，资金活跃度逐步提升，节后注意把握投资节奏。1、锰硅：消息面， South32格鲁特岛锰矿发运恢复时间由3月推迟至6月，预计影响高品锰矿供应约100万吨。贸易商表示加蓬矿2月长协量预计较常量下降一半，2月康密劳对华锰矿报价上升0.2美元/吨度至4.3美元/吨度，涨幅5%。资金面异常活跃，锰硅2505合约增仓37%，涨超500点，领涨期市。基本面+资金面都很强势的情况下，短期逢回调低多为主。2、氧化铝--烧碱：网上传闻北方某大型氧化铝厂产能增产遇阻，氧化铝日内积极反弹，烧碱盘中急跌，后续关注消息面确认情况。近期关注的氧化铝-烧碱跨品种套利模型积极走预期，品种差从昨天的100左右积极修复，最高回归330左右，套利空间达230点左右。不过正常价差一般在500-1000元/吨，后续继续关注该产业链上下游之间跨品种套利机会。
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