智通财经APP获悉,大摩发布研究报告称,中国对进口美国液化天然气(LNG)征收15%关税,将在本月10日生效。市场对美国LNG未来五年的产能扩张感到担忧,如内地大量进口,会导致国内天然气价格下跌。该行指,新关税或会保护中国石油股份(00857)作为国内最大批发商的天然气业务,但对美国LNG进口商则属负面。该行予中石油H股目标价8.76港元,评级“增持”。
该行表示,因为美国LNG产能扩张,或会为内地提供更便宜的天然气,从而影响国内天然气价格。此阴霾一直都对中石油构成压力,不过目前似乎可被移除。另外,该行指,中国需要在2030年前以8%至9%的年均复合增长率提高天然气消耗,以实现其碳达峰目标。
该行认为,天然气发电、工业锅炉以及农村地区的煤改气仍为天然气市场提供了巨大潜力,中石油还可建造燃气发电厂,以在未来创造更多的天然气需求,从而促进其2035年的可再生能源目标。更重要的是,该行认为,随着越来越多的天然气批发被定价为非管制气,中石油的天然气利润率将持续上升。
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