1007 GMT - Palm oil ended higher amid lower supply. Malaysia's January palm oil inventories could fall to 1.6 million tons, down from 2.02 million tons a year ago, Shanghai Dongzheng Futures says in a research note. Malaysia is expected to continue reducing production amid a rising possibility for Indonesia implementing the B40 biodiesel mandate. Meanwhile, investors await Malaysia Palm Oil Board's release of official production and exports data next Monday. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for April delivery ended 24 ringgit higher at 4,332 ringgit a ton. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

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Base Metal Prices Mixed as Trade Tensions Continue to Unnerve Market -- Market Talk

0950 GMT - Base metal prices are mixed, with LME three-month copper flat at $9,174 a metric ton and LME three-month aluminum down 0.5% at $2,615 a ton. Metal prices rebounded on-week as the U.S. pushed back Canadian and Mexican tariffs one month, but trade tensions and global growth risks are still pressing, RBC Capital Markets' Sam Crittenden says. The U.S. imposed another Chinese import tariff of 10%, while China retaliated with fresh levies, including critical mineral export restrictions. President Trump and China's President Xi will talk over the coming days and Chinese retaliatory tariffs won't be implemented until Feb. 10, so they could strike a deal before implementation, Crittenden writes. Tariff uncertainty has prompted a significant disconnect between LME and U.S. commodities exchange Comex copper pricing, with the market factoring in more potential trade disputes, the analyst adds. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

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China's Counter Tariffs Could Affect U.S. LNG Export Projects -- Market Talk

0949 GMT - China's counter tariffs against the U.S. could affect long-term liquefied natural gas contract negotiations, Goldman Sachs says. Beijing's decision to impose sanctions on American LNG and crude oil is expected to have limited implications for energy prices. This is because affected U.S. volumes are likely to find alternative buyers and China can secure supplies from other sources. But "we see a potential pause in new long-term LNG contract negotiations between China buyers and U.S. LNG export facilities," analysts at the bank say. "Given that most proposed U.S. LNG facilities require that a significant portion of their capacity is contracted under long-term deals in order to obtain financing, such a pause might delay new U.S. LNG export facilities reaching a final investment decision." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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European Gas Price Rises With Focus on LNG Supplies, Storage -- Market Talk

0935 GMT - European natural-gas prices rise after settling more than 3% lower in the previous session on news that China's counter tariffs against the U.S. target LNG imports. "The move could keep more U.S. LNG in the Atlantic and increase demand for the super-chilled fuel elsewhere," ANZ Research analysts say. "The specter of more U.S. LNG in the European market eased concerns of shortages that have emerged this year." Still, concerns over fast-depleting inventories across the continent continue to dominate market sentiment, keeping prices sustained. The benchmark Dutch TTF contract is up 1.2% to 52.65 euros a megawatt hour after breaking above 54 euros earlier this week. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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Gold Futures Hit Record for Fifth Straight Session on Safe Haven Demand -- Market Talk

0923 GMT - Gold futures rise to a fresh record for the fifth consecutive session on geopolitical uncertainty. Futures are up 0.6% at $2,893.10 a troy ounce, having touched $2,896 earlier in the session. Safe-haven assets continue to see increased demand on growing global uncertainties under President Trump's hectic lead, with the prospects that the first weeks of the administration are just a foretaste of what is to come over the next four years, Swissquote Bank's Ipek Ozkardeskaya says. Gold is the best hedge for protecting a portfolio from Trump worries, Ozkardeskaya writes in a note. More international relations chaos means greater demand--especially from central banks looking to reduce U.S. exposure should Trump turn his focus on their countries--Ozkardeskaya says. "At this pace, Trump makes $3,000 [an ounce] look like an easy target," the analyst adds. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

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TotalEnergies' Earnings Boosted by Better-Than-Expected LNG Results -- Market Talk

0919 GMT - TotalEnergies' integrated LNG division meant its fourth-quarter adjusted earnings beat consensus expectations, RBC Capital Markets analysts Biraj Borkhataria and Adnan Dhanani write. The French oil-and-gas company's other divisions were all broadly in line with expectations, they add. Given TotalEnergies hosted its capital markets day in October, is isn't surprising that it didn't outline any major changes to guidance, the analysts write. TotalEnergies shares rise 1% to 57.56 euros. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

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Oil Falls Despite Trump Reimposing 'Maximum Pressure' on Iran -- Market Talk

0909 GMT - Oil prices edge lower in early trade despite U.S. President Trump ramping up pressure on Iran. Brent crude is down 0.7% to $75.68 a barrel, while WTI falls 0.6% to $72.25 a barrel. Trump signed a directive restoring his "maximum pressure" campaign on Tehran with the aim to stop the country from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Stricter enforcement of sanctions could put as much as 1 million barrels a day of oil supply at risk, according to ING analysts. "However, reduced flows from Iran will not help in lowering oil prices, something that President Trump is very keen to achieve," they say. "He would need to see OPEC increase oil output to offset any potential Iranian losses." Prices are pressured by fears that a trade war between the U.S. and China could hurt global growth and increase inflationary pressures, damping demand for crude. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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Comex Gold Futures Approaching $2,900/oz on Strong Bullish Momentum, Chart Shows -- Market Talk

0700 GMT - Comex gold futures are approaching $2,900/oz on strong bullish momentum, based on daily charts, RHB Retail Research's Joseph Chai says in a research report. Futures saw fresh positive price movements on Tuesday, while they remain on track to test resistance at $2,900/oz, the analyst says. If the commodity rises beyond that mark, it will likely extend gains toward the $3,000/oz level, the analyst says. The 20-day simple moving average is also trending upward, offering extra support for the bullish technical setup, the analyst adds.Spot gold is 0.7% higher at $2,861.48/oz. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

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Gold Hits String of Record Highs in Tension-Fueled Bullish Rally -- Market Talk

0619 GMT - Gold is mounting a notable bullish rally, fueled by market uncertainty, says Ahmad Assiri, research strategist at Pepperstone. Trade tensions following the U.S.'s imposition of a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, and delayed but looming tariffs on Canadian and Mexican products, have fueled a shift toward safe haven assets, he writes in a note. Although the USD index initially strengthened earlier in the week, posing a headwind for gold, its retracement helped revive buying interest in the precious metal. From a technical perspective, gold is testing resistance that could trigger some profit-taking but the broader trend remains supported by hedging activities amid an uncertainty, Assiri adds. He sees scope for new record peaks if the risk landscape persists. Gold has hit a series of record highs in recent days and was last around $2,857/oz. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

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China Tariffs on U.S. Energy Products May Have Limited Impact -- Market Talk

0309 GMT - China's countermeasures to impose tariffs on U.S. energy products should have limited impact, Citi analysts Oscar Yee and Desmond Law say in a research note. The U.S. only accounted for around 2% and 6% of China's 2024 crude oil and liquefied natural gas imports, respectively, making it easy to diversify to other sources, they say. The analysts note market focus should be on whether Beijing imposes further tariffs on ethane, propane and polyethylene, which could have much bigger impact, given that the U.S. represents around 99%, 59% and 17%, respectively, of China's 2024 imports. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

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Iron Ore Falls, Dragged by Concerns Over China Tariffs -- Market Talk

0259 GMT - Iron ore falls in the morning Asian session, dragged by concerns over the tariffs China announced Tuesday. China imposed a 15% tariff on imports of U.S. coking coal, ANZ Research analysts say in a research report. Chinese iron-ore markets will probably come under pressure amid worries about weaker export-driven demand, the analysts add. Coking coal along with iron ore are raw materials used in steel production. All of the iron-ore contracts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are lower, with the May 2025 contract last quoted 1.2% down at CNY799.5 a ton. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

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China's Retaliatory Tariffs Won't Move Coal Prices Much -- Market Talk

2328 GMT - Are China's 15% tariffs on U.S. coal meaningful for coal markets? That's the question posed by Morgan Stanley, which concludes any impact would be mostly be felt in metallurgical coal prices. Commodities strategist Helen Amos says China accounts for a relatively small share of U.S. coal exports. Still, U.S. exports of thermal and metallurgical coal to China increased over 2024. Morgan Stanley estimates tariffs would raise costs for around 3.4 million tons of thermal coal, representing less than 1% of traded volumes, and around 10.7 million tons of metallurgical coal, or some 3% of traded volumes. "We see negligible or only modest potential price impact of China's coal import tariffs, given both coal markets are currently well supplied," Morgan Stanley says. "But we watch for more meaningful shifts in met coal trade flows." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

Write to Barcelona Editors at barcelonaeditors@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 05, 2025 09:51 ET (14:51 GMT)

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