智通财经APP获悉,交银国际发文称,特朗普新一轮关税政策再次开启贸易战,港股后续可能面临关税带来波动,但与2018年不同的是,现时市场对关税已有预期,情绪冲击较为有限,且港股目前整体估值水平较低,具有一定的抗压能力。交银国际指出,港股仍有望受到两大利好因素的持续提振:(1)DeepSeek引领下科网板块经历估值重塑;(2)两会定于3月5日召开,预期更加积极的财政政策或将为股市提供支撑。建议以高股息板块作为防御性底仓。
交银国际表示,虽然目前落地的10%关税远低于最初提出的60%方案,但市场普遍预期,随谈判与局势变化,对华关税仍有进一步上调的压力。
特朗普对华关税的诉求也牵扯到制造业回流、TikTok争议以及金砖国家非美元化等更广泛的因素,而这些因素均有可能成为未来提高关税的催化剂。
行业配置方面,交银国际指,回顾2018年贸易战,通信、能源及公用事业等高股息板块受影响有限,而高弹性的科技、医疗、消费,以及工业板块波动较大,故此在当前市场面临不确定性下,建议以高股息板块作为防御性底仓,并专注于电力公用事业、电信营运商、银行等现金流稳定、股息率具备吸引力的板块。
科技股方面,该行继续看好AI及科网板块,特别是在DeepSeek等国产大模型推动下,AI基础设施提供商和算力相关标的正迎来估值重塑窗口,建议重点布局具备技术积累和商业化能力的龙头企业。半导体产业链也值得关注,尤其是在产业链在地化进程加速的背景下,具备进口替代潜力的本土芯片设计企业机会明显。
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