金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，2025年春运前20天全社会跨区域流动人员同比增长7.6%，高于节前预测，春节错期和拼假效应导致节前客流相对集中，二次出游表现突出。春运前20天民航/铁路/公路/小客车旅客发送人数同比增长7.1%/6.6%/14.3%/5.9%，料民航量价表现缓解了市场对上年高基数的担忧，后续旺季同比效应有望明显改善。春运前20天民航累计发送旅客同比增长7.1%，受限于国内线增班，料国际线旅客发送量增幅领先国内30pcts以上，利用率的提升有望摊薄单位非油成本，叠加航油价格下降，关注成本端向业绩端改善的传导。该行预计春运前20天票价同比下降5%~10%，小于暑期及四季度跌幅，剔除燃油附加费的影响降幅将有所收窄，春运后半段票价或为检验收益管理策略的关键指标。剔除短期油价波动，该行认为2025年航油成本下降仍为航司利润释放最直接因素。航司收益管理逐渐从行业自律向供需驱动过渡，2025年或为航空繁荣周期右侧元年，目前航司估值颇具吸引力，建议淡季择机布局。
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