金吾财讯 | 玖龙纸业(02689)跳空高开，随后股价继续上探，截至发稿，报3.35港元，涨7.03%，成交额4487.34万港元。公司发布公告，预计集团将取得截至2024年12月31日止6个月(本期间)净利润约人民币6.5亿元至人民币7亿元，增幅为110%至130%之间，相较去年同期净利润为人民币3.03亿元。公告指，预计净利润增加乃主要由于集团本期间销量增加，及原材料成本下降幅度较产品销售价格下降幅度更大且速度更快而导致毛利润增加。信达证券表示，公司Q4受益于旺季驱动&下游补库，预计公司产销景气、销量逐步上行，且龙头纸企携手挺价、10月起涨价函逐步落地，Q4箱板/瓦楞价格环比分别+1.1%/+5.2%；尽管国废受下游需求拉动、价格走势偏强（Q4环比+3.8%），但受益于前期低价原材料库存&公司规模采购优势，吨盈利预计环比改善。此外，公司上游木浆布局完善、Q4浆纸系预计贡献部分利润增量。展望未来，25Q1国废受春节假期影响、价格增长幅度已放缓（25Q1至今较24Q4+0.9%），但龙头纸企仍频发涨价函，箱板/瓦楞25Q1至今较24Q4分别+3.1%/+6.4%；木浆价格持续回暖，为白卡/文化等浆纸产品贡献挺价支撑（25Q1至今较24Q4白卡/双胶/铜版均价分别+2.5%/+3.5%/+1.8%），公司整体吨盈利有望维持优异表现。该行预计公司2025-2027财年归母净利润分别为18.4亿元/23.0亿元/31.2亿元，对应PE分别为7.5X/6.0X/4.4X。
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