建银国际发表报告指，山东黄金(01787.HK) 去年业绩逊预期，公司初步估算去年纯利按年升16%至37%，至介乎27亿至32亿元人民币，逊该行预期的43亿元人民币；但期内黄金产出增长稳固。不过，由于金价上升，利润率扩张，以及黄金生产量增加12%，正迈向公司生产目标。整体而言去年业绩令人满意。
该行上调今明两年金价预测分别3%及5%，至每安士分别2,850及2,980美元。在地缘及经济不确定性下，避险需求推升黄金需求，央行净购买亦支撑金价。作为内地领先金矿商的山东黄金，去年市占约20%，料受惠于金价上升。不过，考虑到资产注入及扩产延迟，该行下调山东黄金今明两年产量预测各6%。
该行预期山东黄金今明两年产量各按年增15%及10%，2024至2026年各年毛利率料分别16.6%、18.8%及18.5%，略高于原先预测。由于少数股东权益增加及利得税率正常化，降今明两年盈测分别17%及16%。不过，该行仍预期山东黄金今年纯利按年升73%至51亿元人民币，较市场预期低6%。该行将山东黄金目标价由22.1元微升至22.4元，认为估值吸引，评级“跑赢大市”。(da/u)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-02-12 12:25。)
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