There's been a notable change in appetite for PTC Inc. (NASDAQ:PTC) shares in the week since its first-quarter report, with the stock down 13% to US$169. Revenues were US$565m, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$0.68, an impressive 27% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for PTC

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from PTC's 19 analysts is for revenues of US$2.49b in 2025. This would reflect a reasonable 7.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to expand 20% to US$3.90. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.54b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.99 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$214, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values PTC at US$240 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$179. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that PTC is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of PTC'shistorical trends, as the 10% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 11% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 12% annually. So although PTC is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for PTC. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on PTC. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for PTC going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for PTC that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.